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The Chip Board Archive 01

Re: Going to Vegas -- Roulette Math

Hi Gene ----- I respect your opinions on chips, gaming, Vegas, everything about our hobby -- but on this subject your opinion cannot override mathematical fact. To take a simpler example of the same type:

The odds of flipping heads on a single flip of a coin are 50-50, right?
What are the odds of flipping two heads in a row? By your analysis, they would be 50-50 also. But, they are not. The total probabities of two flips are four: heads-heads, tails-tails, heads-tails and tails-heads. Therefore, the probability of flipping two heads is one in four (you can also arrive at this answer by multiplying the heads probability for each individual flip (that is, 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 or 25%).

To take it a step further, the probability of flipping three heads in a row is 1 in 8 (1/2 x1/2 x1/2 = 1/8).

You are absolutely correct that in a random distribution, the odds will average out -- that is, on a wheel with 38 spaces, 13 will come up ON AVERAGE once out of every 38 spins. And if you do enough trials, you will come close (VERY CLOSE) to the correct statistical average. That, however, is not the same thing as spinning a predetermined number consecutively. Once 13 has been spun once, of course, the probability of spinning it again on a second spin IS 1 in 38 (or 37 to 1 against). BUT, before the FIRST spin, the probability that you will spin 13 twice in a row is 1/38 x 1/38 or 1/1444 (technically, 1443 to 1 against).

If you seriously doubt this, I'll make you an offer (which you can determine on any random generator you like). You pick any roulette number, 13 or otherwise.
I will give you two "spins" of the "wheel" for every try. You give me 1 chip from your collection for each try and I will give you 500 every time your designated number comes up on both "spins" of your "wheel". If you do one try a (two spins) per minute, I will have your entire collection of 8000 chips in approximately 204 hours. If I pay you 37-1 every time you hit your number of both spins, I will have your collection in just under 137 hours.

And, on average, you will win (spin your designated number on both spins) only once in every 1444 tries. ----- jim o\-S

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Going to Vegas
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Re: Going to Vegas --POKER AND BJ COUNTING
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