Well there is a big question as to what value really means. there are prices at which you buy, but true value as with everything else is determined by what someone is willing to pay when you are selling.
How often do you see with exception of course chips selling at catalog prices?
There are countless chips out there in small issue quantities that no one wants. Therefore issue size alone does not quite dictate demand or value.
In many cases cross collectables that appeal to people other than true chip collectors can also have a large an impact. Hard Rock, and now Hooter chips are perfect examples.
As an Atlantic City collector, I have seen many issues where demand was fueled by low issue numbers only to have prices drop like a rock months later.

The best advice, collect what you like, Don't treat it as an investment but rather as the hooby it is meant to be and you will be better off.