KENOSHA -- An advisory referendum on a possible casino at Kenosha's Dairyland Greyhound Park is set for Nov. 2, and the smart money is riding on it passing.

Unlike Dane County, where a recent casino proposal was soundly defeated, unemployment hovers at about 5 percent in Kenosha County and at a state high of 6.8 percent in nearby Racine County. The casino proposal calls for adding 3,300 jobs, with 2,929 being full-time positions. The proposal says the average salary and benefits package for an employee would likely total $47,234, far above the average package in prevailing area jobs, except for the dwindling manufacturing sector. The plan also calls for work for thousands in construction jobs, with total construction compensation of about $164 million.

While it will only be an advisory vote, Gov. Jim Doyle has indicated he would like to see a positive signal from the community if he is to agree to the track going into tribal trust, clearing a path for the Menominee Nation to purchase the track and develop a casino there. But the Doyle administration might have already tipped its hand, based on an interview in the Kenosha News over the weekend. Marc Marotta, secretary of the state Department of Administration, told the newspaper that the state would want a bigger cut of the action than the 7 percent to 7.5 percent of the casino's net profit that is standard between the tribe and the state.

Marotta said, ``We want to make sure we¹re getting what is the market demand. and I think the 7 percent is on the low side.''

But Marotta did not indicate what share might be more appropriate for the state to receive. Considering the state could be facing a $1 billion deficit as the next state Legislature convenes, such revenue could be vital to a healthy budget.

So the stakes Nov. 2 are high for many parties.

While it will only be an advisory vote, Gov. Jim Doyle has indicated he would like to see a positive signal from the community if he is to agree to the track going into tribal trust, clearing a path for the Menominee Nation to purchase the track and develop a casino. So the stakes Nov. 2 are high.

Under the current plan, financing for the project would be secured by Kenesah Gaming Development in 2006. That group is headed by prominent local millionaire and trucking magnate Dennis Troha, a Kenoshan who was a major Doyle contributor in the 2002 gubernatorial election. Even though the present Alabama owners of Dairyland are pursuing a suit that could invalidate tribal casino gaming, they agreed earlier this year to sell the race track for $40.5 million to the Menominee Nation; the sale would not go through unless local, state and federal authorities approve the casino.

The U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs is about ready to formally consider the proposal, based on comments from Kenosha government officials who recently visited the BIA. If that hurdle is cleared, Doyle's signature would be the last item needed to open a casino along Interstate 94 near Highway 158, one of the most heavily-trafficked sections of interstate in the nation.

The tribe said it could open temporary casino gaming as early as April 2006.

The three permanent phases are:

--Phase One. Erection of a temporary facility including 1,000 slot machines, a 5,000-seat multi-purpose entertainment center, nearly 50,000-square-feet of retail space, a 6,500-stall parking structure, and several dining areas, opening by June 1, 2007.

--Phase Two. ­ Adding 400 slot machines and a 400-room hotel, featuring a conference center, spa, and additional parking, opening by June 1, 2009.

--Phase Three. ­ Building a second hotel and a water park, with no precise timetable..

There has been an active and vocal anti-casino group ­ -- the Kenosha Coalition Against Legalized Gambling ­ -- and its supporters succeeded in expanding the referendum from a city to a county-wide vote in the hopes of broadening the opposition pool. A city-wide referendum was held in 1998, when the Menominee first proposed a casino, and 57 percent voted against banning casinos.

A recent poll commissioned by the Kenosha News showed that 44 percent of the 401 people randomly polled supported the casino. The results showed 27 percent ``strongly support'' the project while 17 percent ``somewhat support'' the project. The poll, conducted Sept. 6-Sept. 8, showed 33 percent against the casino -- 24 percent ``strongly opposed'' and 9 percent ``somewhat opposed.'' The poll was conducted by A&A Research of Montana. The survey firm said the pool has a statistical error margin of 5 percent.

The poll -- and the economic conditions of the region -- suggest casino gambling will again be favored by most local residents. Then it will be up to local officials, the tribe, Doyle and the federal government.