Gambling Craze: In the Cards for Social Mood
9/22/2004 2:33:11 PM

If I knew growing up that one day there would be a World Series of Poker with a take-home first prize of $5 million, I would have asked my parents for Texas Hold ’Em lessons rather than tap-dancing classes.

But when it comes to cards, the name of my game gets about as fancy as “Go Fish.” Frankly, trying to learn how to “flop” a “fourth street” down “the river” in hopes of getting “the nuts” drives me just plain nuts.

As it turns out, I AM all alone: According to a September 17 Sports Illustrated article, “Pokermania has become pandemic” in American society.

No bluffing. The piece deals out the following details:

Currently, an estimated 60-70 million people play poker, and the number is growing.
“Internet poker sites are reproducing like crazed rabbits -- 210 and counting up from barely 50 a year ago. Nearly $110 million is wagered daily on online poker games, up from $20 million last year.”
Partypoker.com, the world’s largest web-based poker room, is host to 50,000 players a day.
The article wagers that “television has catapulted poker into the mainstream,” as today’s channel surfer has a steady stream of programs to choose from devoted to the – err, um -- “sport.” (As if players train daily to build up the buffest bluff or stretch their thumbs before shuffling to avoid cramps.)

Take your pick… Poker has more airtime now than all the reality shows put together:

ESPN: World Series of Poker (WSOP) and World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions
Bravo: Celebrity Poker Showdown
Travel Channel: The World Poker Tour
Fox Sports Net: Poker Superstars Invitational Tournament
As one source put it: “Poker has proven to be effective programming.… It doesn’t matter if it’s paint drying.… If it gets ratings, it stays.”

And ratings it racks in all right. The 2004 WSOP welcomed three times as many players as the year before, which in turn doubled the total grand prize value. Also, the 2004 tournament was the “highest rated and most watched poker telecast ever on ESPN” with a “42% increase in ratings from 2003.”

In the words of one ex-gambler: “This is a real phenomenon! This is a real explosion.… TV poker players are as famous as baseball and football players.” Chris Moneymaker (i.e., the 2003 WSOP winner) or Peyton Manning -- it’s a toss up.

But the real phenomenon is this: Cable is NOT the cause of the current gambling craze; a turn in social mood is, as confirmed by the wave count in the major stock markets.

The September 2004 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast uses an excerpt from a 1992 Elliott Wave Theorist to explain:

“Gambling is a clear manifestation of an urge that in a [rising social mood] results in investment and speculation. Gambling was brought to Atlantic City, New Jersey, during the 1970s, sparking the greatest run that gambling company stocks have ever had.” (Note: The very first World Series of Poker occurred in 1970, in the midst of the biggest bear market in nearly 30 years.)

In a nutshell: As social mood turns down, the amount of effort people want to expend to earn money falls. An overall interest in “Lady Luck” to grant them a million dollars NOW rises, and all bets are on gambling to get rich quick.